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PHIL 112 - FIRST EXAM
I. Identify briefly in one or two sentences any
TEN out of fifteen people (15%):
Socrates, William Frankena,
G.E.Moore, Aristotle, Immanuel Kant, Joseph Fletcher, J.J.C. Smart, Sir William
David Ross, Austin Fagothey, Jeremy Bentham, Ayn Rand, Herodotus, George
Stevenson, Thomas Hobbes, Plato, the Bishop of Gloucester, Thomas Aquinas, John
Stuart Mill, David Hume, Alasdaire McIntyre, Eugene Marais.
II. Define in two or three sentences any FIVE out
of ten concepts (25%):
Cultural Relativism, Hypothetical
Imperative, Reversibility Criterion, Synthetic, Intuitionism, Universal Ethical
Egoism, Prima Facie Duty, Cultural Determinism, Duty, Analytic, Internal
Sense Proposition, Categorical Imperative, Hedonism, Consequentialism, Moore's
Naturalistic Fallacy, Empirical, Psychological Egoism, Practical Imperative,
Emotivism, Virtue, Utilitarianism.
III Answer
FIVE of the following ten questions (60%):
1.
Explain why Lincoln
did or didn't act egoistically when rescuing the piglets.
Lincoln
was defending the thesis that everybody is an egoist, and that he,
consequently, also was an egoist. When
he rescued the piglets, his fellow passengers objected that that was clearly an
altruistic action. "Not so," Lincoln
answered, "I rescued the piglets for purely egoistic reasons. If I hadn't rescued them, I would not have
been able to sleep for weeks. So I
rescued them so that I would be able to sleep.
Clearly, I acted for egoistic reasons: so that I could sleep
better."
Lincoln
was probably not serious, and he was just pulling the passengers' legs, but his
arguments are tricky.
First, one egoistic action does not make him an
egoist. This is known as a “pseudodilemma:” a person is forced to choose
between two possibilities, whereas in reality there are many
possibilities. In this case Lincoln
tells us: “I do something egoistic, therefore I am an egoist.” In reality, however, he can be 10 percent
egoist and 90 per cent altruist, 15 percent egoist and 85 per cent altruist,
and so on. And even if he is an egoist, it does not mean that everybody is an
egoist as well. But we tend to think in
black or white categories, and we tend to think that he is either an egoist or
an altruist. In reality, he--and we as
well--are both.
Second, Lincoln
implies that he rescued the pigs so that he could sleep better. But 'sleeping better' is the result of
Lincoln's rescue,
not the cause. It is not the case
that Lincoln had sleeping problems and that he was considering drinking
sassafras tea, running twenty times around the White House, taking DMACC's
Miracle Pills, or rescuing pigs and finally settled on rescuing pigs. Lincoln
cleverly switched cause and result to confuse his fellow passengers and he
could do so because it is the unintended result. Generally the cause and
the intended result of an action are similar: if I want to become rich and
famous, then that causes me to enroll at DMACC, and then the result that I
intended is that I become rich and famous. But the unintended result of an
action has no necessary relation to the cause of the action: if I want to
become rich and famous, then that causes me to enroll at DMACC, and while at
DMACC I run into Chris and eventually we get
married. But meeting Chris
was an unintended result of my enrolling at DMACC has of course no relation to
the cause of my enrolling there. Lincoln’s intention was to save the pigs, that
intention caused him to jump into the water and that also caused unintended
results--like for example getting water up his nose, getting wet and muddy, sleeping
well—in addition to the intended result: rescuing the piglets. Only for the intended result we can
say that it was like the cause of his action.
Third
and last: sleeping well, or, in general, being happy, has nothing to do with
egoism, altruism, or goodness or evil.
When people act in agreement with their personality they feel happy,
sleep well, or are nice to people. Bad
people sleep well or are happy when they do bad things; good people sleep well
or are happy when they do good things.
We would like to think that a bad conscience makes us unhappy or keeps
us awake, but people like Jeffrey Dahmen or Al Capone are perfectly happy and
sleep perfectly well doing what they do, because it agrees with their
personality. Now, when a good person
does bad things, THAT is a different story.
But as long as character and actions agree, people sleep well and are
happy. If Lincoln
had been an evil person, he would sleep well after he had tortured and drowned
the piglets instead of rescuing them.
Now
when a bad person does something evil, that will make him or her happy, but not
the majority of the population. If Jeffry
Dahmen had been sitting in the coach and
seen the drowning pigs, he would have jumped out and speeded up the drowning by
keeping them underwater or keeping their mother or farmer from rescuing
them. That would have made him happy,
but not the other passengers in the coach, the sow, the farmer or the farmer’s
family. So, a good deed causes happiness
for more people than a bad deed, at
least that is what Utilitarians think.
2.
Explain Kant's 'Reversibility
Criterion.'
One of the weaknesses of Kant's Categorical Imperative
is that it condones what we consider evil or silly behavior. In some cultures there are diseases, such as
leprosy or blindness, which are seen as punishment by some God, and which are
then interpreted as invitations to further punish the diseased person. In such a culture, e.g. in Ancient Persia,
there would be a rule: "Always beat a blind person." Clearly, if
everybody would always beat blind people, no chaos would result although blind
people would have short and miserable lives. Similarly, a rule requiring
everybody to say "Bongo" or something like that when someone sneezes
would be silly but not lead to universal chaos.
To prevent such rules from being Categorical Imperatives Kant introduced
the Reversibility Criterion, which is a fancy name for what most of us know as
the 'Golden Rule:' "Do not do to others, what you don't want others to do
to you." The Reversibility
Criterion now states that Categorical Imperatives which you don't want to apply
to you--for example, if you were blind you wouldn't want everybody to beat you,
even if no chaos would result--can not be Categorical Imperatives.
3.
Was Socrates the wisest person
on earth?
Socrates was pronounced to be the wisest person on earth
by the God Apollo's oracle in the town of Delphi,
and when he went there himself to investigate this statement, he noticed that
on Apollo's temple was written: "Know yourself." The original meaning may have been:
"When you read this, you should realize that you are a miserable
good-for-nothing compared with (the priests of) the God Apollo." But Socrates
reasoned that, if Apollo wants us to know ourselves, and if He thinks Socrates
is the wisest person, then He must think that Socrates knows
himself. And then Socrates realized that Apollo was right! When he heard that he was pronounced the
wisest person, his reaction was that he was an average person who could not
possibly be the wisest. But, Socrates
realized, in realizing that he was an average person, he really was the
wisest. His colleagues and competitors
went around proclaiming that they were the most clever and most successful teachers,
while in reality they were just average like Socrates. But they did not know they were average; they
thought they were the best, did not know themselves and therefore were not
wise. Socrates
realized, correctly, that he was average; that he correctly knew himself, and
that he was therefore wise.
Socrates
thereby gave a new interpretation to what was written on Apollo's temple:
"Know what your weak and strong points are,” or: “Have a realistic opinion
of yourself." He also gave a new
definition to Wisdom. Previously people had thought that wise people knew a
lot, had a lot of experience, or had read a lot. But Socrates said that now
anybody could be wise. All it takes to
be wise is know your strong and weak points.
A genius who knows he is a genius is wise, but so is a moron who knows
he is a moron.
4.
Discuss the relation between Etiquette or
Manners and Morals or Ethics.
Manners and
morals are quite different: many, for example, considered the writer Oscar
Wilde an immoral person although everybody
agreed that his manners were perfect. Manners are based on a set of rules that
govern our behavior, and behavior that conforms to those rules is correct, but
not necessarily good. Deciding whether manners are good or correct is easy: you
just look at the manners and check—e.g. with a book on good manners—and if the
manners conform to the rules, the manners are good or correct. Looking at the manners is sufficient. When we
decide that an action is morally good, however, looking at the action is rarely
enough: we have to find out whether the action is good. And it depends on our ethical philosophy how
we decide whether an action is good. A
Utilitarian makes her or his ethical decisions differently from an Ethical
Egoist, and they, in turn, make their ethical decisions from followers of Kant
or Aristotle.
5.
Explain the weak and strong points of Ethical
Egoism.
Ethical Egoism
defines 'good' as 'in one's best self interest,' and it is clear that this will
lead to contradictions and conflict. It is in my best self-interest--and
therefore 'good'--to charge you an outrageously high interest rate but it is in
your best self-interest--and therefore 'good'--to get a 20 % discount, which
would be bad for me. This would mean
that the same action would be good or bad at the same time, which is a
contradiction. So, first of all, Ethical Egoism is not a good philosophy to
deal with conflicts.
And, second,
Ethical Egoism is based on the idea that we know what is best for us, and that
we therefore should stick to what we know best.
However, we don’t always know what is in our best self-interest, and our
best self-interest can therefore not be a good basis for a good action in all
cases. The good point of Ethical Egoism is that it stresses responsibility and
self-reliance: in many situations--though not in all--we do indeed know what is
best for us. Ethical Egoism does not help us, however, in solving conflicts
between parties where each claims that the action which is in their best
self-interest, is the right action.
6.
Discuss Herodotus' story about
the Greeks and the Callatians. What did Herodotus
think this story showed? Was Herodotus right? Explain why or why not.
Herodotus was a Greek historian, who lived about one
hundred years before Socrates. He tells the story of the
Persian king Cambyses (Book III, 38) who invited a group of
Greeks and a mysterious people, the Callatians.
This was the first and last time people have heard of the Callatians. He
asked the Greeks what they did with their parents and loved ones when they
died. The Greeks answered that they
cremated them. The Callatians, when
asked by the Persian king, answered that they thought this was very
disrespectful: burning your ones loved like trash and then putting them in a
vase. The Greeks were surprised and
asked the Callatians what they did with their loved ones. "We want them to be always with us, so
we eat them," the Callatians replied.
The Greeks did not approve of that.
This, Herodotus wrote, proves that our ideas of right
and wrong are relative: what is wrong for one person or group may be right for
another. Nothing is therefore absolute,
he said, and all morals are relative.
But this story shows that some morals may be absolute after all: both
the Greeks and the Callatians thought that one should respect one's deceased
loved ones, although they differed as to how to express that feeling.
7.
Evaluate Act and Rule Utilitarianism.
The problem with
Act Utilitarianism is that with each individual action we have to calculate its
consequences to see whether it will result in the greatest happiness, and that
is time-consuming and impractical. Act
Utilitarianism is also difficult to teach. More importantly, Act Utilitarianism
is ultimately a case of the end justifying the means, which we intuitively
reject. Rule Utilitarianism relies on discovering which rules result in the
greatest happiness. This means that
initially deciding which rule brings most happiness, but then afterwards we can
apply a rule without going through all of the results of a single action each
time. Rule Utilitarianism is therefore in the long run easier to teach and
easier to figure out.
8.
Explain Kant's 'Categorical
Imperative.' How is it related to his
'Hypothetical Imperative?
"Imperative" here means "command" or
"rule." There are two types of 'imperatives:' Rules that apply in
some cases, for example: "If you want to become rich and famous, you
should attend DMACC." "Attend
DMACC" is therefore a rule that is valid only in some cases: if you want
to become rich and famous. Kant
calls these rules "hypothetical imperatives," because they only apply
in some hypothetical cases. The other
types of rules are those that apply always, and they are called
"categorical imperatives," where 'categorical' means
'universal.' Kant claims
that a rule is a categorical imperative when 1) it is universalizable and 2)
non-self-contradictory.
'Universalizable' means that the rule can be applied in all cases, not
just in most. 'Non self-contradictory'
means that applying the rule should result in order, and not chaos. A rule, Kant explains, has
as its purpose order, and therefore should result in order. If it does result
not in order but in chaos, then it is not a good but a self-contradictory rule.
9.
Discuss Charity, analyzing among others whether
charity is demeaning (Ayn Rand),
egoistic (Thomas Hobbes),
or just plain common sense (Immanuel
Kant).
Thomas Hobbes,
whom one could call one of the early Psychological Egoists, claimed that people
always act in their best self-interest and that giving to charity is merely
showing off or making sure that when they hit upon bad times, they have a right
to ask for help.
Discussion:
That is, of course, possible but Hobbes gives no reasons why
he thinks that this is always the case. Also, we know best what goes on
in our mind; propositions about our own mind are ‘internal sense propositions,’
about which we are the authority. We may lie about it, but we still know best. Ayn
Rand said basically the same—charity is
showing off or an investment--but added that charity is an insult to the
receiver of charity. Whoever gives, Ayn
Rand said, claims that (s)he knows what the
receiver needs, even better than the receiver her- or himself. Discussion:
This may be the case in some events, but generally people appreciate receiving
charity not only because they get some material help but also because it is the
expression of sympathy, which most people appreciate. Kant
basically agreed with Hobbes: charity is in your best
self-interest but saw it only as insurance.
Those who give to charity are more likely to receive from charity when
they need it. Again, that is a possible explanation, but Kant
had of course no way to figure out what went on in other people’s mind.
10.
Discuss Thomas
Aquinas' Natural Law theory in Ethics.
Natural Law
originated with Aristotle and was developed by Thomas
Aquinas and states that using items is good
when they are used for what they were made for. Natural Law is often invoked
when discussing homosexuality: human sexual organs were made for heterosexual
reproduction and should therefore only be used for that.
The
problem is that it is often difficult or impossible to find out what something
was made for. Were hammers made only for
hammering nails or for killing cave animals or cave people? And should it
therefore NOT be used to scare off robbers? In
the case of objects that were made long ago, the only way to find out what they
were made for, is to look at what they are used for. But then it is not the intention of the maker
but usage that tells us what things were made for.
Also, dictating that items can only be used for what they originally were
made for goes against human creativity and inventiveness and the urge to
experiment. This is also true in
biology: horns may originally have originated as tools to fight over mates, but
animals now also use them to fight off predators. There are similar problems
with the giraffe's neck and the feathers and wings of birds, especially now
that dinosaurs with feathers have been found. And what was my appendix made
for?
11.
Compare Universal Ethical Egoism with
Psychological Egoism; does either theory imply we can do whatever we want?
Psychological Egoism states that we do what is best for us, and that
implies that we have not much choice in our behavior. In any situation we do whatever is best for
us, whether we want or not.
Psychological Egoism therefore claims that we have no free will and we
cannot do whatever we want, we can only do what is in our best self
interest. We are computers that figure
out what is best for us and then do it and the question of whether we want to
do it or not does not come up. Universal
Ethical Egoism states that acting in our best self-interest is good. It states
that we have the possibility to do all kind of clever or silly things, but from
all the things we may want to do, only those that are in our best self-interest
are good. Universal Ethical Egoism therefore states that we have a free will,
that we can, that is: have the possibility, to do whatever we want to do. However, not everything we want to do is good
for us, and we may decide not to do some things we want to do. We can do
what we want, but not everything we want is in our best self-interest.
12.
Discuss on the basis of Kant's
'Case of the Inquiring Murderer' whether there are situations when lying is
right. Discuss at least one way to change Kant's theory to
justify lying in this case.
In Kant's
"Case …" someone meets a person who clearly wants to murder somebody
and asks for the address of somebody who happens to be a good friend of the
person who is asked. There are two
conflicting Categorical Imperatives in this case: 1) People should try to save
lives, and, 2) People should not lie. We
intuitively feel that lying is justified in this case and can justify it in
either of two ways. First, we can rank
the CatImps and let the higher have priority over the lower ranked
CatImps. In that case we could rank
'Save lives' as higher so that it would have priority over 'Speak the truth'
and the higher CatImp would cancel the lower CatImp out. Second: we could
qualify CatImps by allowing exceptions and say, for example: "Always speak
the truth, except to save a life."
This latter statement would still be a CatImp: if everybody would speak
the truth except to save a life, no chaos would result. Kant did not want to apply
either possibility, probably since ranking and exceptions would be based on
consequences, and he wanted to get away from consequentialist theories.
13.
Explain whether Intuitionism and Emotivism claim
that we are always right when we express our moral opinion.
Intuitionists indeed claim that
we are always right because we have some moral hot line that ensures that we
always make the right moral decision if we listen to our intuition. For Emotivists the question of being morally
right does not arise. When we say: "Murder is wrong," we merely say,
according to the Emotivists, that 1) we don't like murder and/or 2) we order
you not to murder. We merely express our opinion in moral statements, according
to Emotivists, and they ignore the question whether our opinion is based on
good reasons or not, or whether it is morally good or not.
14.
David
Hume wrote that, when someone was murdered,
he could see a victim, the murderer, and the instrument of the killing, but he
could not see 'vice' till he examined his own feelings. Discuss and evaluate the implications of this
statement.
David Hume wrote
that, when a murder occurred, he could see the murderer, the victim, the
instrument, blood, but try as he might, he could not see 'vice' or 'evil,' until he looked in his own heart and there he
found a feeling of disapproval and that, he said, was evil or vice.
Hume therefore said that
Ethics is about emotions. His way of
thinking was taken up by the Emotivists, who claim that ethical propositions
are 1) emotional expression and/or 2) commands or suggestions to do or not to
do some actions.
Philosophers
like Kant claim that Ethical propositions are analytic: you
look at the sentence and its meaning and then you can figure out whether it is
true or not. Hume claims ethical
propositions are synthetic: you look at what is happening in the world--in this
case what is going on in your own mind or heart--and then you find out whether
murder is right or not. If there is a feeling of disapproval, murder is evil
but when there is a feeling of approval, then murder is good. One problem is
that an overwhelming majority of people has the same opinion about some ethical
questions, which cannot be explained by declaring those questions to be
personal feelings or opinions. Another problem is how we get our emotions.
Murder may evoke in us a feeling of disapproval, but how did that feeling
originate? Is it: 1) an innate feeling that we can not control, or, 2) a
feeling that is the result of our education by our parents who decided murder
is evil, or, finally, is the feeling a result of many repeated intellectual
conclusions by us that murder is bad? Hume, therefore, does
not address the question of where these feelings come from, whether they can be
changed, and, in the final analysis, whether they are right or wrong.
15
Discuss the relation between Egoism and
Altruism.
Purely egoistic
actions are in reality not in one's best self-interest, since they antagonize
others. Rather, being polite, nice, and
cooperative--or altruistic--is in one's best self-interest. Hence, in judging
whether an action is in one's best self-interest, one has to take the long-term
view and check whether it will antagonize others. Purely altruistic actions, for example giving
away all your possessions, are not altruistic either, since that would mean in
this case that you could not take care of yourself, have no car, no house and
that you force others to take care of you or your family, which is not altruistic. In short, the difference between altruistic
and egoistic may be minimal: it is in one's best self-interest to be altruistic
and long-term egoism is almost identical with altruism.
16.
Socrates asked Eutyphro:
"Do your Gods say something is good because it is good in itself, or is it
good just because your Gods say so?"
Discuss the issues involved in his question.
Eutyphro told Socrates
that telling right from wrong was easy: all he had to do was listening to his
Gods. Socrates then
said that there were two possibilities. One: the Gods pronounce an action as
good for some reason that has to do with the action itself. Two: the Gods make
an arbitrary decision, for example flip a coin, and pronounce the action good
for a reason that has nothing to do with the action. In the first case, that is when the Gods have
a reason for their opinion, we should be able to examine that reason and see
whether that is a good reason and whether we agree with the Gods. In the second case we need not bother to
listen to the Gods.
What Socrates wants to say
is that we can't pass the buck. We have to make our own decisions and we can't
accept someone else's reasons why an action is good or not. And Socrates did not
exclusively target Eutyphro's Gods. He
said that we should always make up our own mind and not listen to any
authority, for example a neighbor, parent, spouse, coach or teacher. We can, of
course, make up our own mind and on decide on basis of our experiences that we
will listen to an authority: God, our neighbor, or our grandmother. But we need
good reasons for our decisions and we cannot blindly rely on authority the way Eutyphro
blindly relied on his Gods.
17.
Explain why Kant thought that
only the Will is good, and why Duty is so
important.
Kant
saw people as being different from animals because animal behavior is governed
by instincts and urges while our behavior is governed by rules. People, Kant said, are auto-nomous,
which means 'self-ruled' in Greek. Hence rules make us human, but only when we
stick to those rules. Will, or willpower, makes
us follow these rules, which is why Kant thought that the Will
was the only good thing that was always good. Courage, for example, is not
always good, for example when it is the quality of a murderer. Duty is the obligation to society to follow its
rules; it is a realization that there are rules and that we have to follow
them. Kant thought that
doing a good deed, for example helping your little brother with his homework,
out of a feeling of duty was better than doing the same deed because you felt
like it, but many philosophers disagree with him on that.
18.
Discuss Kant's "Practical
Imperative."
Kant's Practical
Imperative states that people are an end, purpose, or goal in themselves and
should not be used as a means or tool for some else. He seemed have thought that it was identical
or at least very similar to a CatImp, probably because a tool or means is
something that is not always good or evil, but only good or wrong for a certain
purpose. Declaring that people should
not be used as a tool is therefore the same as saying that the rules for people
should be universalizable, and, additionally, Kant's understanding of 'rule'
meant that 'real rules' could not result in chaos, which is the other
requirement for a CatImp. The Practical Imperative may have been directed
against the Utilitarians. Utilitarianism
basically states that if the end is general happiness, the end justifies the
means or tools. This, however, is
especially a problem in Act Utilitarianism.
Rule Utilitarianism suffers much less from this defect.
19.
Discuss Aristotle's
'Virtue Ethics.' Which are its weak and strong points?
Aristotle's
'Virtue Ethics has recently become popular as a reaction to the relativism of
e.g. Utilitarianism. Relativistic theories
like Utilitarianism hold that any action can be good or bad, depending on the
consequences. Some philosophers have
rejected this, most notably Immanuel
Kant, who holds that some actions are good
in themselves, no matter what the consequences are. Hospitality or friendship,
for example, is considered by some to be good, no matter which consequences
they have.
Aristotle,
too, thought that some of our character traits, called 'virtues,' are always
good. Our virtues have two sources. First, Aristotle said, when we want to find
out what the virtues are, we look at what he called 'virtuous people,' and what
we call role models, like John F. Kennedy, Mother Theresa or Martin Luther King
Jr. We determine what their qualities or
characteristics are, and these we call 'virtues.' This, properly speaking, is circular
reasoning: we define a virtue as the characteristic or quality of a virtuous
person, but that means that we define virtue with the help of virtue, and that
is not a good definition. The characteristics of virtuous people are copied,
taught, or learned by people, they lead to good results, and these good results
reinforce the virtues in a feedback process.
The good results of living on basis of virtues become causes or reasons
for living on basis of these virtues, and that repeats itself in a
self-perpetuating process. Second, some
virtues are innate and will then be further developed by the educational
process. But some vices are also innate,
and they have to be eliminated by education.
Education therefore teaches and reinforces virtues and eliminates vices.
Virtues
need to be fine-tuned, according to Aristotle. Too much or too little of a virtue is not a
good thing, and our intellect helps us in deciding how much of a virtue is the
right amount. Too much courage is
recklessness; not enough is cowardice. Aristotle
is therefore a rationalist: he thinks that our mind, ratio in Latin,
helps us decide what is right and wrong.
The
weak points of Aristotle's ethical philosophy
are that he does not give us any idea how many virtues there are, and on what
basis human qualities are chosen to be virtues.
Also, his choice of virtues clearly reflects a pagan society. In the Middle Ages Christian philosophers
considered, for example, Love, Hope, and Charity
to be virtues, but Aristotle considered, for
example, Courage to be a virtue, and he also thought that the ability not to
drink too much alcohol was a virtue, as was the ability to make witty remarks.
20.
Explain the strong and weak points of
Utilitarianism.
When
compared with Ethical Egoism, Utilitarianism has the clear advantage of being
able to solve conflicts between people. But it uses ‘happiness’ as the basis
for determining what is good, and, of course, it is difficult to define
happiness and, moreover, what is happiness for one person may not be happiness
for the next.
The Utilitarians solved
this problem by defining as good that which makes most people happy. In other
words, they put it to a vote, which at least Kant thought was
just horrible. It may be difficult to determine which action will make one
particular person happy, but it is a lot easier to determine which action will
make most people happy: just put it to a vote.
When we want to determine whether an action makes a person happy, we run
into the problem that what makes my aunt Petunia happy does not make her son
Jeroboam happy. In such cases we want to find out what action will cause
happiness for her or him. But when we only want to determine what makes most
people happy, we don’t have to worry what causes happiness. We proceed from
what will have caused happiness, or, at least what people say will have caused
happiness. We look at the result, or at least what people say will be the
result, and that is the basis for the Utilitarian definition of a good action.
People can not be wrong about what makes them happy, because their opinions
about what makes them happy are internal sense propositions. Freud,
however, thought that people can be mistaken about their internal sense
propositions. Rather than the mayor or city manager figuring out whether the
inhabitants of Ankeny will be
happier with a casino than with a racetrack, a vote will determine what will be
built. Will they be all happy in the same way?
That does not matter; the only thing that matters is that they say they
will be happy. The great drawback of Utilitarianism is that it is difficult to
predict the future. In the US
space program we have had some spectacular successes when scientists predicted
exactly what a spacecraft would do many years in the future. But in other areas, most notably the economy,
it is very difficult to predict how the stock market will behave.